Did you know that 50% of marriages end in divorce? And of the marriages that will end in divorce, 65% will happen in the first five years. 75% of all start-ups fail, and if you're starting up a tech business, statistics say that it has a 90% chance of failure. It seems like everywhere you look, the numbers are out to get you. But are we giving too much power to these little abstractions called numbers?
This is a question that surfaces every-time I hear a news story that tosses out a quick statistic, then proceeds to say that it's been proven that [fill in the blank here]. We see it all over the place, 65% of people that heat eggs have significantly higher cholesterol, so it's proven that eggs are bad for you; 45 people who watch violent movies report feeling more aggression, so of course it's a fact that violent movies make you more violent! But is all that really true? Do those statements jive with your own personal experiences? Have you been married without divorcing; has your marriage lasted for longer than five years, ten, fifteen year?? Does that make you an illusion?
And the answer is: of course not. That's not to say that there's nothing valuable in statistics, it's more a matter of understanding what those numbers do then it is about letting them tell you about what can be, or should be. Let's break a couple of those down, shall we?
First, take a look at the second number in the first paragraph: 65% of failed marriages occur within the first five years. From the outset, just the way the words format the sentence are misleading, and moreover, they're misleading in a wholly accidental way. At a cursory glance, just the way the percentage is presented, it almost seems like it's saying that 65% of marriages end within five years, when the actual number is around 35% of total marriages ending in five years. It's only after you hit the 20 year mark that you can say half of all marriages end with an "after all, I don't".
And what about all of you starry-eyed entrepreneurs out there; with numbers like that, why bother? Chances are you're just going to crash and burn. But again, what those few raw numbers don't tell you is how many of those who have had one failed start up have gone on to form a successful one.
Another even bigger factor about creating a news story around a single stat, is that it ignores the question: what of the outliers? Sure, 75% of all start-ups fail, but what of the 25% that go on to find success? Too often, those that find themselves on the wrong side of the numbers are left out of the story, being written off as insignificant, even when the statistic that's used to spin a fact is under half. And again, I don't think that this is necessarily done on purpose, I think it's just how our brains reduce information and comprehend numbers in general.
I'm not saying that numbers or statistics aren't important, but I am saying that sometimes we neglect the outliers when they can have just as much to teach us, if not more, than the raw stat itself. When you're researching your endeavor, whatever it may be, it might be good to look at the numbers at guideposts along your journey, and not as absolutes of what can and cannot be done.
Cody Hobbs
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